Midterm Elections Preview
SPEAKERS
Jim du Bois, Kathryn Pearson
25:02
Jim du Bois 00:00
Dialogue Minnesota...conversations about the issues that matter to you. I'm Jim du Bois. The midterm elections are a couple of days away, and the stakes for both the Democratic and Republican parties are high since control of Congress hangs in the balance. At the state level, all 201 Minnesota legislators and our constitutional officers are up for election. University of Minnesota Associate Professor of Political Science Kathryn Pearson joins us for a look at where things stand as voters prepare to go to the polls on Tuesday. Professor Pearson, welcome back to Dialogue Minnesota.
Kathryn Pearson 00:38
Thank you, Jim. It's great to be with you.
Jim du Bois 00:40
The midterm elections take place on Tuesday, November 8. Many see this year's midterms as a referendum on Joe Biden's presidency. There's a long-standing pattern in American politics where the party controlling the White House loses congressional seats in the midterms. What are some of the reasons why it is so hard for the party in power to maintain its numbers in Congress?
Kathryn Pearson 01:03
That's right. Over the last century, there have only been three midterm elections where the president's party has actually picked up a few seats in Congress. In every other cycle, the President's party has lost seats in the House, usually, on average, about 30 seats. The losses are fewer in the Senate. The Senate is more variable because only a third of the seats are up. But typically, two years is not enough time for the President to get a lot done and to really make a mark so that voters are enthusiastic about the President's performance. And in the case of President Biden, his approval ratings have hovered in the low 40s. And so, that really makes it difficult for Democrats in this particular midterm cycle. We have high inflation, people are pessimistic about the economy. And so voters, Republican voters are more enthusiastic about turning out to vote against Joe Biden, even though he's not on the ballot, and vote for Republican candidates. And there is some Democratic enthusiasm caused by the Dobbs Supreme Court decision back in June, but in general, polls are showing that Republicans are more enthusiastic. So, the combination of an unpopular Democratic president and a faltering economy make this midterm cycle particularly challenging for Democrats at every level.
Jim du Bois 02:25
Well, let's talk about what the polls are indicating this year. How close is the battle for the House and the Senate expected to be?
Kathryn Pearson 02:32
Well, the question about the House of Representatives is how many seats do Republicans pick up, not whether or not they will pick up seats. And it seems highly likely that they will pick up many more than the five that they need to regain majority party control of the House of Representatives. And so, having said that, many of the competitive races are very close. And so, if we see a strong Republican tide on election night, Republicans could pick up 20 House seats. If we don't see a strong tide, it could be around 10. So, we really don't know just because so many of the House seats are tossups and so close, but Democrats are defending many more competitive seats than Republicans are in this particular cycle. The US Senate is a trickier question. Of course, only a third of the seats are up. It's currently 50-50. And there are several very competitive races. The electoral cycle definitely benefits Republicans, but Republicans have nominated some candidates in some states that are having a really hard time. I'm thinking about Oz in Pennsylvania and Walker in Georgia. These are two states where a strong Republican candidate would likely have a pretty big lead in these states. But that's not the case, and so these are two states that are very close.
Jim du Bois 03:50
Which gubernatorial races will you'll be watching most closely this election cycle, and do you expect to see any red or blue shifts in these races?
Kathryn Pearson 04:00
Well, even though we're talking about President Biden and the House and Senate, state legislatures and governor’s races are also affected by these national trends. And so, we saw in 2010, when Democrats fared so poorly, losing 63 seats in the House, Democrats also lost many state legislative majorities and several governor's races as well. And so, the top electoral cycle for Democrats sort of affects governor's races as well. Being in Minnesota, I'm, of course very closely watching Minnesota's race. The incumbent DFL Governor Tim Walz has a lead in the polls, but there's no doubt that this tough electoral cycle is making it a competitive race in Minnesota.
Jim du Bois 04:47
In 2016, virtually no major poll predicted that Donald Trump would win the presidency. Why were the polls so off in 2016, and have the issues leading to those inaccuracies been addressed?
Kathryn Pearson 05:01
Well, the polls were off in 2016 because they underestimated support for President Trump. They actually got support for Hillary Clinton, they captured that pretty accurately. But what they didn't capture was support for President Trump, especially in some of those key swing states, like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, because they undercounted, they, they didn't have enough respondents, white men who lived in rural areas without college degrees, who also really shifted from 2012 to 2016 in favor of Republican candidates. Those voters were less likely to respond to polls, and when they did, pollsters did not adjust the polls enough to account for their preferences that went heavily toward Trump because of this shift from 2012 to 2016. So, pollsters are aware of this and are trying to improve the polls. But I think the reality is that it is increasingly difficult to poll in this era, even with you know, many different polling options, whether it's cell phones, or texts, or online polls, it is still difficult to get a representative sample of voters to respond to polls. So, I think we really need to consider polls to be a snapshot in time and not necessarily predictive of election results. The other thing about polls is that we should really look to polls that are aggregated, so taking together instead of just relying on one particular poll, because the power of aggregation of many polls is that they get a more accurate estimate of a snapshot in time, but they don't predict election outcomes. And I think that the media sort of leads us to believe that that's the case. And then voters and candidates and strategists are understandably very frustrated when they're wrong.
Jim du Bois 06:49
When the US Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade earlier this year, the country saw an uptick in women registering to vote. Polls this summer indicated that many Americans disapproved of the ruling and blamed the Republican Party. Are abortion rights still a significant issue for voters given concerns about inflation, gas prices, the border, and crime to name a few?
Kathryn Pearson 07:12
That question will be easier to answer after election day. But one thing is clear: abortion is a bigger issue in this election than it has been in previous elections. Does that mean that it's as important as the economy, inflation, crime? Not necessarily. But polls suggest that younger voters are very upset by this decision. And it is the case that majorities in most states in America are opposed to the Dobbs decision that overturn Roe v. Wade. But if that decision is not sort of the primary motivating factor in vote choice, then it won't necessarily have the impact that it looked like it might have earlier in the summer. It is also the case that more women did start registering to vote than men after the Dobbs decision, which is interesting because historically, over time, polls have shown that divides on the question of abortion aren't really divides along gender lines, they're divides along partisan lines, or ideological lines, religiosity, those are the types of factors that sort of predict differing opinions on abortion, not so much gender. Typically, equal percentages of men and women sort of support or disapprove of abortion rights, even as a majority of the country tends to be in favor of access to abortion with some restrictions.
Jim du Bois 08:37
We mentioned at the start of the show that the midterms have much to do with the presidency of Joe Biden and how voters view his presidency. But are there local issues that you're seeing in Minnesota this year that are taking center stage?
Kathryn Pearson 08:52
The issues that we're seeing in the ads in Minnesota are, by and large, the same issues that we're seeing nationally. So, Democrats in Minnesota are talking a lot about access to abortion in the wake of Dobbs. Republicans in Minnesota are talking a lot about crime, and they're talking about the economy and inflation. Democrats are talking about the economy as well, sort of making their case about the economy. But these are the same trends that we're seeing nationally, and in general, elections have become much more nationalized. And we saw this in the 2018 midterms with, at that point, a record number of voters voting straight party line, not splitting their ticket, just voting for one party's candidates. And so, even though the races are closely divided here, most voters in Minnesota will vote straight party line.
Jim du Bois 09:46
Minnesota since eight US House members to Washington. Currently, there are an equal number of Democrats and Republicans. Do you expect this balance to change after the midterms?
Kathryn Pearson 09:56
Well, Minnesota's Second District is home to one of the most competitive, expensive House races in the country. And so, it is certainly too close to call at this point. I think it's likely that the other seven incumbents will win in the other seven races. There's, you know, there's a lot of money being spent in Minnesota's First District, so, but with a good year for Republicans, I think that is very likely to stay in Republican hands. But the Second District is just too close to call. It's a toss-up race. Democratic incumbent Angie Craig is running for re-election, has raised millions of dollars. And she's been challenged again by Tyler Kistner, who has not raised as much money as Craig for his campaign, but really benefits from millions of dollars in outside spending from groups running attack ads against Craig. And then Craig is also benefiting from outside money running attack ads against Kistner. So, this is an incredibly close race and incredibly expensive race. And both parties are looking to Minnesota Second District as one of the races that could help determine which party controls Congress or in reality, how big the Republican margin is.
Jim du Bois 11:08
Let's talk a bit more about the First Congressional District which encompasses southern Minnesota. Republican Brad Finstad won the seat this year in a special election to fill a vacancy that was left after Representative Jim Hagedorn passed away. He now faces his Democratic challenger, Jeff Ettinger, who is a former Hormel CEO. Is it still possible for a Democrat to win in a district that has shifted red in the Trump years especially given the fact that Governor Walz had multiple terms in the First District?
Kathryn Pearson 11:38
Right, in the first district. If we were talking about this race in the context of the 2018 midterms where Democrats had a big advantage, I would have said yes, the First District would have been in play in that type of electoral context when that election was a referendum on President Trump, and Democratic enthusiasm back then was so much higher. But in 2022, in the context of a year that heavily favors Republicans, even though Finstad is only a recent incumbent and doesn't have the long-standing advantages that most incumbents have running for reelection, you know, a full two-year term, he is still advantaged as an incumbent and even more so as a Republican in a district that has shifted Republican at the presidential level.
Jim du Bois 12:23
Representative Hagedorn was married to the former chair of the Republican Party of Minnesota, Jennifer Carnahan, who resigned after a federal grand jury indicted a prominent GOP fundraiser on sex trafficking charges. From what you can tell has this scandal affected the Republican Party in Minnesota at all this year?
Kathryn Pearson 12:42
It's not something that voters are talking about necessarily. I think that if somehow Carnahan had been the Republican candidate in the First we'd be hearing a lot more, a lot more about it. But I think in terms of, you know, the party's ability to sort of, you know, maintain cohesion, and not have staff turnover and sort of internal issues It has affected the party. In terms of being an issue for voters that they're talking about, I think this election is so nationalized, and everyone is focused on, you know, the issues of the economy, inflation, crime and abortion, that this is sort of a peripheral concern, if at all, for voters in Minnesota in the cycle.
Jim du Bois 12:42
You had mentioned that it's deja vu in the race in the Second District again this year. One other item interesting about the Second District is back in 2020, there was a third-party candidate on the Legal Marijuana Now ticket who died prior to the election, but his name stayed on the ballot. The same thing has happened again this year. And I guess the question is, how much did the third-party candidate impact the election two years ago? And do you think this will have the potential to throw a wrench into the race again this year?
Kathryn Pearson 13:56
Because this election is so close, a third-party candidate could matter and could be determinative. It, of course, is very sad that Paula Overby has passed away and her name remains on the ballot; she will get fewer votes than she would have, in all likelihood, if she were still campaigning and still alive. But it is definitely possible that voters either who haven't followed the news or who just want to vote sort of symbolically in favor of the legalization of marijuana may still cast their vote for her, just as was the case two years ago. I think the question that's hard to know is if her name were not on the ballot, would those voters have voted for one of the two major party candidates or would they have just you know, voted in the governor's race but not voted in that congressional race at all? And we don't know the answer. I think in such a very close race, it is possible that a third-party candidate could make the difference If some Republican voters, you know, or Democratic voters who feel very strongly about the legalization of marijuana sort of, you know, put their support behind Overby instead of Craig, yes, it could make a difference. But once again, we don't know what those voters have just, you know, passed on voting in the Second District race more generally. So, because it's such a close race, yes, it could make a difference. But it's hard to know at this point.
Jim du Bois 15:27
Let's look at the Minnesota gubernatorial race. Governor Tim Walz has held an early lead in the polls against Republican opponent Scott Jensen. Has Jensen been able to chip away at this lead as we approach the election?
Kathryn Pearson 15:40
Yes, Jensen has absolutely chipped away at Walz's big lead that he enjoyed early on in the cycle. And I think that's for many reasons. The number one reason is that sort of partisans come home. For the most part, strong partisans support their party's candidate. And so, even the Republicans who may not have supported him in the nominating process, are at the end of the day going to support their candidate. I think the real question is the sort of very weak partisans or independents who may or may not vote in a midterm election where turnout is usually about 20 points lower or are still perhaps deciding between two candidates that they may have some issues with. In general, incumbents are advantaged in gubernatorial races, but again, in 2022, Republicans have a huge advantage because of President Biden's low approval ratings. And so I think that Jensen's stance against vaccines is perhaps hurting him among independent voters. I think it's possible that a candidate who had not taken such extreme positions, a Republican candidate who had not taken such extreme positions, would be doing better in the polls than Jensen is right now.
Jim du Bois 16:53
Like many other states, rural Minnesota tends to trend conservative and the metro areas trend liberal. Does this mean the battle for the governor's office will be waged in the suburbs?
Kathryn Pearson 17:04
Because this is such a close race, it really will be waged everywhere. And what I mean by that is that, yes, Walz will win overwhelmingly in the metro. But turnout will be key here. Again, midterm elections are about 20 points lower than presidential years. And so, in order for statewide candidates to do well in Minnesota, they rely on a big turnout in the metro. And so, if the turnout isn't big in the metro, that can be very harmful to DFL candidates. But yes, the suburbs also matter. The margins between Republicans and Democrats are much, much closer in the suburbs. And we see that with the Second District being so competitive. And we see that in the exurbs as well. Democrats, of course, are trying to hold on to a couple of seats, Senate seats in the Iron Range, a seat in St. Cloud, but I think you know, really given how close this race is, the battle is everywhere.
Jim du Bois 17:59
While Governor Walz has maintained a consistent lead in the polls, the race between incumbent Attorney General Keith Ellison and his GOP challenger Jim Schultz is extremely tight. Why is this race so tight for Ellison this time, and of course, back we should mention when he was first elected to the office, the margin was very close back then as well. What headwinds are working against Ellison in this particular election cycle?
Kathryn Pearson 18:26
First off, it's a good year in general for Republican candidates. And then I think the issue of crime. I think that many voters don't have a clear understanding of what the attorney general's office does. And as Schultz is sort of making promises about combating crime, some of these promises are actually outside of the purview of what the attorney general can do. But that's not particularly clear to voters. There's a lot unknown to voters about the office. And so given the fact that crime is such a concern to many Minnesota voters, I think that is definitely hurting Ellison as he is running for reelection. And his race, again, as you mentioned, was narrow four years ago, and that was a year that really favored Democrats. And so, it's not surprising that it is a highly competitive race and one of the closest.
Jim du Bois 19:14
We should also mention that a statewide race the typically attracts very little attention is highly contentious this year. Incumbent DFL State Auditor Julie Blaha is in a tight race with her GOP challenger Ryan Wilson. Blaha is facing criticism because of the massive fraud associated with Feeding Our Futures. How close is this race at the moment?
Kathryn Pearson 19:38
Oh, it's extremely close, both because of the Feed Our Futures fraud that you have brought up, and because once again, it's a good year for Republicans and you know, her incumbency status, we would typically think that would be helpful, but because of the scandal, I think it's actually making it more difficult for her to sort of get her message out. And so, strong Democrats will vote straight party line, strong Republicans will vote straight party line and then in some of these more competitive races there either might be just fall off people not voting, or more independent voters or weaker partisans being willing to cross party lines. for some of these candidates.
Jim du Bois 20:16
Minnesota is one of the few states to have a split legislature. Democrats control the House, Republicans control the Senate. Do you expect this dynamic to change after the midterms?
Kathryn Pearson 20:26
Well, because the divisions are so narrow, and the majority is so thin, really anything is possible. It is certainly possible that Republicans could control both chambers. It is also possible that the current split could continue. I think, I think it would be hard for the DFL to control the State Senate. But again, because these races are so close and so competitive, nothing is impossible, but I think one likely scenario would be the status quo.
Jim du Bois 20:54
In 2020, two major events changed the way many Americans thought about education. First, the pandemic disrupted in-person learning for many students and angered parents on both sides of the aisle. Second, following the aftermath of the murder of George Floyd, many schools reexamined how they teach about race. These two issues have inspired many people to run for local school boards. How do you think these types of very local races and issues are impacting the entire midterm election in terms of the salient issues that voters are concerned about?
Kathryn Pearson 21:31
Well, the nationalization of local school board races is really a troubling trend because it takes attention away from whatever particular issues a school district is sort of wrangling with and imposes national issues in local elections that really may not be relevant to a particular school at all. You know, most K through 12 schools do not teach critical race theory it; you know, it's something that is taught in law schools. It's, you know, discussed among academics. And so, I think some of the examples that are being used are teaching about history and incorporating race to a greater extent in the teaching of US history. But the debate over critical race theory really, sort of if you're thinking about the issues that schools, that most schools are facing, really does not make a lot of sense. But it has mobilized a lot of voters, a lot of candidates. And it's made the electoral environment more challenging for school board races as well. It's sort of taken something which used to be nonpartisan and really focused on whatever particular issues schools were facing and turned it into sort of a national issue with a lot of partisanship and conflict infused and so it's, it's not a good development in terms of thinking about how to best identify and sort of solve problems in local schools.
Jim du Bois 22:59
Many conservative candidates running in local and national races this year have asserted a belief that Joe Biden did not legitimately win the presidency. How is this issue shaping our national and local races?
Kathryn Pearson 23:12
Well, it is it's something that a lot of Republican candidates are repeating as well. And so, it's, it's deeply troubling that the election, which was certified by the secretaries of state of all 50 states, Democrats and Republicans alike, it's just not true, that, that Joe Biden did not legitimately win the election. Of course, he won it legitimately. And so, it's troubling in terms of what it means for future elections. Does this mean that if a candidate doesn't like the result, they'll say that the election was not legitimate? It's troubling as we think about moving forward because who knows what will happen in 2022, 2024 if certain candidates don't like the results.
Jim du Bois 23:59
Do you think local election officials and our voting systems are prepared this year for what many think will be an onslaught of challenges and lawsuits?
Kathryn Pearson 24:09
I think they have been preparing, but it is hard to know if they are prepared given that we don't know exactly what will happen after the election. It is certainly troubling to hear the reports of potential violence at polls, sort of, you know, hostility toward volunteer judges, poll workers, it is deeply troubling. You know, our democracy relies on free and fair elections.
Jim du Bois 24:35
Kathryn Pearson is an associate professor of political science at the University of Minnesota. Professor Pearson, thanks so much for joining us on Dialogue Minnesota.
Kathryn Pearson 24:44
My pleasure. Thank you, Jim.